Forex Trading Strategy

Forex ; True and false Trendline Breakouts
When price breaks through a trend line, how can we tell whether it is a true or a false break? Well, we can't tell or predict until we see it later on. But, we can analyze what price has been doing prior to this breakout in order to form our own opinion and bias, and either pay attention to the breakout or disregard it.
We can always go back and look at waves pattern, or simply, whether price was making Lower Lows (LL), Lower Highs(LH), Higher Highs (HH) etc..?

Let's look at the next two screen shots:


(The market was in a downtrend. We drew a trend line connecting first two tops.
Price was obeying the line, but then at some point (where I put a yellow question mark), price breaks the trend line and closes above it.
How can we know at that moment whether we could trust this breakout or not?
The simplest and popular method is to wait till price returns back to test the strength of the broken trend line again. Then, if it holds, traders would say that a breakout is confirmed and enter either somewhere near the test point or when price advances through the earlier established breakout mark.
Here is a quick example (I drew the red candles myself to illustrate the point):

After the break of a trend line price returns, tests the line again, finds support and, as a result, goes up. Yellow dotted line indicates the point of entry with a Buy order.
BUT, this kind of re-tests don't happen all the time. Sometimes price would just break the line and advance further without looking back. What to do then?
This is why I like to look back at older data to learn what happened prior to the breakout.
What can we see on the first example (first screen shot above)?
Price was consistently making Lower Lows. But, most importantly, prior to
breaking a trend line, price made another Lower Low, telling us that Sellers were still strong and were able to push the price down. Based on this, we can say that this particular breakout that we were questioning cannot be "trusted". (I use the word "trusted", because whether the breakout was valid or not we will only learn later).
Now, let's look at the next example below:


Let's start form the beginning: price is making Higher Highs and we draw our red trend line.
At some point later the red trend line gets broken. Can we trust it? The answer is "no, we can't", because we still can see a higher high, which means that buyers were still able to push the price higher.

Few candles later price is bottoming out, attempts another up-move, but fails and puts a Lower High this time.
That's nothing else but a trigger that bulls are weakening and either one of the trend lines (solid or dashed in brown) which you'll be able to identify will become the point of truth: if it gets broken - the price is very likely to move lower.

That's it. A simple method, which might help you to judge about most likely outcomes of the trend line breakouts.
Remember, that in the uptrend you need to take into consideration only Swing Highs, in the down trend and for downtrend trend lines - only Swing Lows.

----- SBJ ------- by; Edward Revy & Team ------

Forex Chaikin Money Flow

The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator was developed by Marc Chaikin to create an oscillating indicator for his earlier, cumulative indicator Accumulation/Distribution. Both indicators measure the degree to which money is flowing into or out of a security or currency. Chaikin created these indicators to expand and improve on an earlier volume indicator, On Balance Volume.
On Balance Volume (OBV) compares a currency pair's closing price with its previous day's close and either adds or subtracts the volume to a cumulative total, if the pair is up or down respectively. Accumulation/Distribution (A/D) altered the parameters of OBV by using the mean price, the midpoint between the periods high and low, to decide whether volume for that period was being accumulated (bought) or distributed (sold). After categorizing the period either as accumulation or distribution A/D then adds or subtracts volume based on the degree to which the pair closed above or below its open. The main difference between Chaikin’s two volume indicators is that Accumulation/Distribution is a cumulative running total while Chaikin Money Flow oscillates around a zero line.



Function
Chaikin Money Flow says:
• If a currency pair closes in the upper half of its trading range on a particular day and volume is strong, the pair is being accumulated.
• If thepair closes in the lower half of its range on strong volume, the pair is being distributed.
The values of CMF can also be used to indicate buying and selling pressure:
• Values that bounce between 0.1 and -0.1 and otherwise hang around the zero line are not strong enough to offer a bullish or bearish signal.
• Values above 0.1 and below -0.1 are indicative of buying and selling pressure respectively.
• Values above 0.25 and below -0.25 are indicative of strong buying and selling.
As with other indicators, Chaikin suggested looking for a divergence between the pricing action and the oscillator.
• If a currency pair trends up while the CMF rolls over and heads down, the currency pair will very likely top out soon after.
• On the other hand, if a currency pair trends down while the CMF bottoms out and begins to move up, the pair will very likely follow.

----- SBJ ----- by: cmsFX --------

Forex Chart ; Symetrical triangle pattern

This pattern shows two converging trendlines (support levels & resistance levels) and is (1) a bearisch formation that usually forms during a currency pair downtrend as a continuation pattern (downtrend will continue) or (2) a bullish formation that usually forms during a currency pair uptrend as a continuation pattern. (uptrend will continue)

This pattern is confirmed when the currency pair price breaks out of the symmetrical triangle formation (1) to the downside and closes below the lower support trendline in order to continue the downtrend or (2) to the upside and closes above the upper resistance trendline in order to continue the uptrend.

What does a Symmetrical Triangle Formation look like?


The symmetrical triangle is marked by two important trend lines. At its top, there is a line of resistance where traders are willing to sell the currency pair. This resistance line communicates the fact that bearish currency traders are over time willing to pay lower and lower prices for the currency pair indicating a possible break out to the downside.

At it's bottom, the support line communicates the fact that bullish currency traders are over time willing to pay higher and higher prices for the currency pair indicating a possible break out to the upside.

How to trade this pattern?

For it's best prediction, an established trend should exist, either a strong down or a strong uptrend. Once the currency pair breaks out the symmetrical triangle, most likely, the price will continue it's previous trend.

Trade the breakout!

Chart example



Please note how the previous trend is an uptrend, once it breaks out the symmetrical triangle, it's uptrend continue!

Forex ; Trendline Support and Resistance

The trendline. A trendline is a main initial element for the price chart analysis. While the market moves in any direction not along a straight line but along a zigzag, the mutual placement of upper and bottom points of those zigzags permits to plot a line connecting the significant highs (peaks) or the significant lows (troughs) of an appropriate zigzag using technical tools of the computer program.

To draw a trendline only two points are necessary and the third one is the contact point confirmation. On a bullish trend chart it should be drawn using troughs, on a bearish  using peaks. The trendline and a line which is about parallel to it and drawn on the opposite side (through peaks on a bullish trend and through troughs on a bearish) form the trade channel. Both lines are then channel's borders.

Lines of support and resistance. The upper and the bottom borders of trade channels are called accordingly support and resistance lines. The peaks represent the price levels at which the selling pressure exceeds the buying pressure. They are known as resistance levels. The troughs, on the other hand, represent the levels at which the selling pressure succumbs to the buying pressure. They are called support levels. In an uptrend, the consecutive support and resistance levels must exceed each other respectively. The reverse is true in a downtrend. Although minor exceptions are acceptable, these failures should be considered as warning signals for trend changing.

The significance of trends is a function of time and volume. The longer the prices bounce off the support and resistance levels, the more significant the trend becomes. Trading volume is also very important, especially at the critical support and resistance levels. When the currency bounces off these levels under heavy volume, the significance of the trend increases.

The importance of support and resistance levels goes beyond their original functions. If these levels are convincingly penetrated, they tend to turn into just the opposite. A firm support level, once it is penetrated on heavy volume, will likely turn into a strong resistance level. Conversely, a strong resistance turns into a firm support after being penetrated. In general, to evaluate the reliability (that is the possibility of a break) of the trade channel borders taking a decision to close or to save an existing position one should govern himself with following rules:

1. A channel is the more reliable the longer it exists. Hence, the solidity of very old channels (e.g. existing more than 1 year) decreased sharply.
2. A channel is the more reliable the more is his width.
3. The resistance may be broken if it is bounced on the background of a growing volume.
4. A steep channel is less reliable in compare to a gentle one.
5. The support may be broken independent on the volume.

----- SBJ --- by; T.Anderson -----

Forex Forecasting ; The Elliott Wave Principle

Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, the Elliott wave principle is a very popular technical analysis tool that allow traders to forecast trends in the foreign exchange market or any other financial market such as the stock market.

The Elliott Wave Theory was developed due to the fact that financial markets are traded in five distinct waves going in the direction of the main trend followed by three distinct waves going against the main trend that can be forecasted with an understanding of crowd psychology.

Understanding Elliott Waves

According to Ralph Elliott, currency pair prices move in waves, five impulsive waves and three corrective waves (a "5-3" move). Impulsive waves move in the main direction of the trend and corrective waves move against the main up-or down trend.

Let's take a look at the following Elliott Wave pattern for better understanding:


Impulsive and Corrective Waves
To fully understand the Elliot Wave Theory, it is important to understand the psychological rationale for each of these waves since the zigzag movement of prices represents the ebb and flow of investor optimism and pessimism. Given an uptrending market:
Wave 1 (Impulsive): Minor Upwave In Major Bull Move – In Wave 1, prices rise as a relatively small number of market participants buy a currency pair for either fundamental or technical reasons, pushing prices higher.
Wave 2 (Corrective): Minor Downwave In Major Bear Move - After a significant run-up, investors may get fundamental or technical signals indicating that the currency is overbought. At such time, Wave 2 develops when original buyers decide to take profits while newcomers initiate short positions. Price action reverses, but generally does not retrace beyond its initial low that attracted buyers at Wave 1.
Wave 3 (Impulsive): Minor Upwave In Major Bull Move - Often the longest wave of the five, Wave 3 represents a sustained rally, as a larger number of investors use the Wave 2 dip as a buying opportunity. With a broader range of
buyers, the security enjoys a stronger push higher, with prices extending beyond the top formed at Wave 1.
Wave 4 (Corrective): Minor Downwave In Major Bear Move - By Wave 4, buyers begin to become exhausted and again take profits in reaction to overbought signals. Generally, there is still a fair amount of buyers, so the retracement here is relatively shallow.
Wave 5 (Impulsive): Minor Upwave In Major Bull Move - Wave 5 represents the final move up in the sequence. At this point, buyers as a whole are motivated more by greed than any fundamental justifications to buy, and bid prices higher irrationally. Prices make a high for the move before a correction or reversal ensues. The high in Wave 5 often coincides with a divergence in the relative strength index (RSI).

This is a view including the correction wave that follows the basic Elliott Wave:



A-B-C Corrective Waves*

Wave A: Correction To Rally – Initially Wave A may appear to be a correction to the normal rally. However, if it breaks down into five subwaves, it indicates that a new market trend may have developed.
Wave B: Bear Market Correction – Wave B tends to give bears an opportunity to sell as others take profit on their short trades or exit their long positions.
Wave C: Confirms End Of Rally – Wave C is the last wave of the cycle. At this point, Wave 3 typically breaks key support zones and most technical studies confirm that the rally has ended.

Minimize Forecasting Errors With Elliott Wave*
Since many different waves can exist during the same time frame, increasing the risk of forecasting error, traders should follow certain rules to minimize risk. The most important of which is to follow the principle that the “the trend is your friend.”

This means that it is more prudent to only look for opportunities sell into minor waves when the major wave is a downtrend and to buy when the major wave is an uptrend. More rules can be used though to determine levels for placing stop-loss orders or to exit the trade.

Fibonacci ratios are one of the most useful ways of identifying possible peak or
bottoms of wave cycles. A popular relationship that exists is that Wave 2 retraces 38% of Wave 1. 50% and 61.8% retracements are also frequently seen.

Below is an example of a five-wave move up in GBP/USD:


------- SBJ ---- by; Jim Fot ------

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