Saturday, September 26, 2009

Forex Trading System

Profit With Forex Opening Range Breakouts
Many forex traders like to incorporate forex breakouts into their overall trading strategy because they can be extremely profitable. When a price finally breaks out of a tight trading range, many traders tend to jump on board and carry the price further away from this trading range, which is why this strategy is so effective.

Focus on Opening Range Breakouts

One of the most popular ways of trading these breakouts is by focusing specifically on overnight / opening range breakouts. By that I mean the opening hours of the new trading day. I myself tend to focus on the hours between 00.00 and 06.00 GMT and predominantly concentrate on the British and European-based pairs such as the GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs, for instance.

These hours are notoriously quiet and yet these few hours before the busy opening session set the tone for the rest of the day. You will often find that the price will stay confined in a fairly tight range during these six hours or so and when the UK and European markets open, the price will trend significantly in one direction and will often break strongly out of this initial trading range.

Therefore a profitable strategy is to open a long position when the high point of this opening range is breached and open a short position when the low point is breached. There are various ways you can put this system into practice. You can either open a position as soon as the price crosses the line or as soon as the breakout candle closes, or you can wait for a pull-back and then jump on board if the price continues to move in the direction of the initial breakout.

All of these methods tend to work quite well and there is a logical reason why this is the case. The fact is that every currency pair has an average daily range, i.e the average number of points between the high and low points for a given trading day. So on those days where the opening range is very narrow, this initial range will be a mere fraction of the overall average, so therefore you can expect some big price moves to occur during the rest of the day either above or below the overnight range.

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Forex Trading Indicator

Saturday, September 19, 2009

my Trading Indicator - Simple System....( 1 )

Forex Trading with Elliott Wave

The Elliott Wave Principle, developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1930s and 40s, is a powerful analytical tool that is still being used for forecasting stock market behavior. The basic concept of this Principle is that stock market prices rise and fall in distinct patterns and that those patterns can be linked together into waves.

Since it was first published, this classic guide to the Elliott Wave Principle has acquired a cult status globally among technical analysts. With subsequent new editions, the contributors have refined and enhanced the message of the original publication while retaining all the predictions from past editions.

Elliott Wave Counts may be summed up as follows:

Wave 1 is normally the most weak of the impulse waves. It is based on short covering of the bears from a previous move. The next Wave is created at the end of the first Wave and after the currency pair is sold off.

Wave 2 comes to an end when the market fails to make new lows.

Wave 3 is the most lengthy and most strong of the impulse waves. This leads to strong currency buying or selling in the trend's direction that usually starts slowly, but tends to accelerate as it breaks to new highs above the top of Wave 1.

A correction will occur, especially after a strong trend. Traders will then start making profits, paving the way for Wave 4.

Again, the currency pair will rally ushering in the Wave 5 rally. This Wave is usually supported by the retail traders and not institutional buyers and tends to lack the momentum generated in the third
images
This is in a nutshell Elliott Wave analysis can be deployed to enhance traders forex swing trade evaluations. A closer look into the Elliott Wave theory and other strategies could be useful for traders and enable them to use these as tools for increasing their forex swing trade opportunities.

When evaluating the Forex market for swing trade opportunities, the focus should be placed on forecasting directional changes for a given currency pair, relying on technical analysis. In this analysis there are different indicators. The most reliable tool used to predict Forex market swings is Elliott Wave analysis that can be used to identify trends and countertrends, continuation and exhaustion of trends and also to evaluate the potential of pricing targets of a trend.

Elliott strongly believed that the market's movement was a direct result of the mass psychology of the time and that the stock market is a fractal that is an object similar in shape, but at different scales. An apt example of a natural fractal is a stalk of broccoli. The stalk and individual branches look strikingly the same because the branches are smaller in scale. According to Elliott this mass psychological move resembles the herding tendency in human beings.

Summing up, the market price actions are not the cause of economic growth or slow down, but the reflection of the mass psychology of investors. If the mood of the investing public is upbeat then a bull market ensues. This is counter to what most individual perceive, that is because there is a bull market the mood of the investing public is upbeat

---- by;Forex Cycle ----

Monday, September 14, 2009

Forex - RSI and Divergence

Technical indicators are constructed by manipulating some aspect of price such as a moving average of prices over a 10 day period. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) tries to anticipate a change in the trend.

This is a leading indicator of a trend change. The results are used to deliver messages about the strength of the market. It is called an oscillator because the indicator readings are converted into percentage results which range from 0% to 100%. The position of each day’s indicator reading gives the trader an indication of the strength, or weakness, of the existing price trend.

The RSI is calculated by monitoring changes in the closing prices of the stock. The number of higher closes is compared to the number of lower closes for the selected period.


The RSI compares the internal strength of a stock by looking at the average of the upwards price changes and comparing it with the average of the downward price changes.

The results are expressed as a percentage, providing the upper and lower boundaries. The plotted results oscillate between these two levels and give traders information about the speed and acceleration of the changes.

Traders use either a 14, 9, or 7 day period in the Relative Strength Calculation.
In this sense the RSI is very similar to a stochastic and uses similar principles. Where the stochastic quantifies the ability of the market to close near the high or the low of the day, the RSI quantifies the strength of the way the market moves higher, or lower. The over-bought and over-sold signals are the same as any oscillator, although with an RSI they are traditionally set at 70% and 30%.
The most significant trading signal delivered by any oscillator style indicator is a divergence signal. This sounds complicated but it just means that the significant valley patterns shown by the RSI trend in the opposite direction to the significant valley patterns as shown by the price line chart. A valley is created by two distinct lows that each precede a rally from a downtrend. This builds a valley in the price chart. The lows of these valleys are joined with a short trend line as shown.
The corresponding lows on the RSI indicator are also joined by a short trend line. When the RSI line slopes differently from the price chart line, a divergence occurs. When these valleys form below the 30% area on the RSI, or form peaks above the 70% level, they are most reliable. Oscillator activity between these levels is not used to find divergence signals.
signal does not occur every time a trend changes, but when it does, it delivers a strong confirmation signal that a trend break is likely.
RSI divergence signals often appear in advance of a trend change, but they are not very good at suggesting the time of a trend change. The divergence signal may appear just as the trend changes, as in the chart extract, or several weeks before. Traders use the RSI divergence as an early warning signal to enable them to prepare for a trend change.
When the RSI and price chart lines move in the same way we get a confirming signal that the existing price trend is unlikely to change. These signals are not very important because we can get the same information from just looking at the chart.
The RSI is one of the very few oscillator style indicators where trend lines and support and resistance lines can be effectively used. These are used as signals to confirm the trend shown on the price chart. When other chart patterns suggest action, then the RSI trend line might also confirm this. When the RSI is used like this it does not give the trader any distinct advantage.

signal does not occur every time a trend changes, but when it does, it delivers a strong confirmation signal that a trend break is likely.
RSI divergence signals often appear in advance of a trend change, but they are not very good at suggesting the time of a trend change. The divergence signal may appear just as the trend changes, as in the chart extract, or several weeks before. Traders use the RSI divergence as an early warning signal to enable them to prepare for a trend change.
When the RSI and price chart lines move in the same way we get a confirming signal that the existing price trend is unlikely to change. These signals are not very important because we can get the same information from just looking at the chart.
The RSI is one of the very few oscillator style indicators where trend lines and support and resistance lines can be effectively used. These are used as signals to confirm the trend shown on the price chart. When other chart patterns suggest action, then the RSI trend line might also confirm this. When the RSI is used like this it does not give the trader any distinct advantage.

Sunday, September 6, 2009

Forex Schaff Scalping Strategy

here is just another new Scalping method which I've tested for quite a long time and now I feel confident to share it with everyone around.

However, please note that although the Logic is same but this particular Indicator behaves bit differently when I use it on MT4 or AlTrade Platform compared to the ProRealTime platform that I use with my CFD Broker. IMHO, I've found the ProRealTime much more reliable than the way it works on MT4.

Here goes my Scalping method:

Timeframe: 5, 10, 15 Minutes
Pairs: Any pair will do however Cable (GBPUDS, GBPJPY) is my favorite for Scalping

Go Long When:
1. Schaff Trend Cycle has been rising
2. Schaff Trend >= 25
3. MACD is in uptrend
4. Parabolic is in Uptrend

Go Short When:

1. Schaff Trend Cycle has been declining
2. Schaff Trend <= 75 3. MACD is in downtrend 4. Parabolic is in downtrend Exit When:
Really depends on the MACD Pattern, sometimes you may want to Exit when the MACD line separates itself from the Histogram while sometimes you need to Exit when the Schaff has reached to 75 level (if you're on Long Trade). Based on my experience, it also depends on how quickly the Schaff Trend has moved from one extreme to another.

Advantage:
Basically, it filters out the False MACD signals, such as the one shown in Chart. The key is to avoid the MACD signals which are not confirmed by the Schaff Trend Cycle.

Tips:
1. Also try to use it on larger timeframes, you'll find it quite useful especially on 4H timeframe
2. Try it in combination with ADX
3. If you're not using this system for Scalping but for the longer term Entries than you might want to keep yourself in trade until the Schaff Trend hasn't changed its color (sorry only available in ProRealTime) or moved to the other side (25 to 75 or from 75 to 25)

Caution:
1. Only use this system during the active trading hours (European Session is my favorite)
2. Its not necessary that the Schaff Trend will always move between 25 and 75 levels, sometimes this might change its direction well before reaching its destination. If that happens, you must exit your trade immediately.

Once again, good luck with your trades and keep making pips
Here is another example of Scalping with Schaff Trend ...

Note that I've used 10 and 90 as the Trend Changing readings for Schaff. Also note that DMI (along with ADX) can also be used as an additional confirmation.


---- SBJ -- Asherewt -- FxstrategyRvld ---

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Forex Strategy ; Two Timeframes ("TC Experts")

This strategy uses the TC Expert indicator in Two Timeframes. The 1-Hour TC Expert is used to determines trend. The TC Expert on a 10-Minute Chart is used for Trade Entry and Exit.
When the 1-Hour TC Expert is bullish, for example, then Trend is UP, and the strategy will buy when the 10-Minute TC Expert turns bullish. The strategy exits a buy trade when the 10-minute Expert turns bearish, or when price closes below a Gann Hi/Lo line that is used as a trailing stop.
Indicators used in this strategy & their inputs:
1-Hour Chart: TC Expert (7,18,36,7)
10-Minute Chart: TC Expert (7,18,36,7)
Gann Hi/Lo Activator - Gann HiLoA(7)


Chart 1. The TC Expert is composed of two separate indicators.
Trend
Trend is the direction of the TC Expert on the 1-Hour Chart. When the Schaff TC Expert is applied to the chart, two indicators appear, both a black Schaff Trend Cycle (‘STC’) and a green Schaff Trend RSI (‘STR’).


Chart 2. Trend changes are highlighted by the the red and blue vertical lines, after which the TC Expert indicator turns bearish and bullish, respectively.
Trend is UP when the TC Expert is bullish. The TC Expert is bullish when both the black STC and the green STR are rising above the lower red-dotted Buy line shown in Chart 2.
Trend is DOWN when the TC Expert is bearish. The TC Expert is bearish when both the black STC and the green STR are falling below the upper red-dotted Sell Line.
Trade Entry
The strategy uses the TC Expert and a Gann HiLo line on a 10-Minute Chart to time when to enter a trade. When Trend is UP the strategy will buy when price is above the Gann HiLo line and the 10-Minute TC Expert turns bullish. If Trend is DOWN the strategy sells when price is below the 10-Minute Gann HiLo line and the 10-Minute TC Expert turns bearish then the strategy sells.

Chart 3. With a DOWN Trend in place, a Sell Entry occurs on the 10-Minute Chart at 9:20 at 2.0387.
TC Expert Strategy: Buy Entry and Sell Entry rules:
BUY when 1-Hour Trend is UP and
1. The 10-Minute TC Expert turns bullish and
2. Price is above the Gann HiLo line
SELL when 1-Hour Trend is DOWN and
1. The 10-Minute TC Expert turns bearish and
2. Price is below the Gann HiLo line
Trade Exit
Various exit tactics are used, depending on how price could develop.
Trend Indicator Changes Direction
If the 1-Hour Trend changes direction then exit the trade.
Trade Entry Indicator Changes Direction
If the 10-Minute TC Expert changes direction then exit the trade.
Price Closes beyond Trailing Stop
The Gann HiLo line is used as a Trailing Stop on the 10-Minute Chart. If the strategy position is long, then exit if the 10-Minute price closes below the Gann HiLo. If the strategy is short, then exit if price closes above the Gann HiLo.
The chart below follows the GBPUSD trade shown in Chart 3.


Chart 4. The sell position exits when the 10-Minute TC Expert turns bullish.
The sell trade entered on October 3 at 9:20, at 2.0387, exited at 16:40, at 2.0313, when the 10-Minute TC Expert turned bullish (with both the STC and STR rising above 25). The result is a profit of 74 pips.
TC Expert Strategy: Buy Exit and Sell Exit rules:
Exit a BUY Position if one of the following situations occur
1. Trend changes to DOWN, or
2. The 10-Minute TC Expert turns Bearish, or
3. Price closes below the Gann HiLo on the 10-Minute Chart.
Exit a SELL Position if one of the following situations occur
1. Trend changes to UP or
2. The 10-Minute TC Expert turns Bullish or
3. Price closes above the Gann HiLo on the 10-Minute Chart.
Initial Stop Loss Order: Controls trade risk. Establish before the trade.

--- by : FX Strategy --------